Worldwide ad spending in measured media is expected to drop 5.5% to $417 billion in 2009 but will experience a mild recovery in 2010 with a decline of only 1.4%, or $411 billion, according to (pdf) the latest 70-country forecast report from GroupM.

However, though GroupM expects the global picture to improve in 2010, ad spending in the US and other G7 nations (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, and the UK) will likely lag behind the BRIC nations (Brazil, Russia, India and China) and continue to experience negative growth into 2010, the report stated.

US  and G7 Ad Spend

Advertising expenditures in the US are expected to fall 4.3% this year followed by an anticipated 6.5% drop in 2010, according to the report. These figures compare with an average 6.4% decline in 2009 followed by a 5.5% drop in 2010 in
the G7 nations.

GroupM Chief Investment Officer Rino Scanzoni said US ad spend should stabilize this year and next, but will still be down. “We expect a bottoming out on local media spend in 2009 with more stability into 2010,” he said. “However, we are expecting further contraction on national media particularly television as clients adjust budgets to reflect a continued pessimistic consumer spending forecast.”

BRIC Growth

On the positive side of the equation, the BRIC countries are expected to contribute strongly to worldwide ad spending growth and lead the recovery. “China’s economic stimulus has already bolstered confidence, and the demand for advertising in Russia will recover quickly if $70-a-barrel oil prices are here to stay,” said Adam Smith, GroupM’s futures director. “Brazil and Indonesia remain among the top growth contributors, and India is predicted to come back strongly after pausing in 2009.”

Smith confirmed that overall global prospects for a limited ad recovery in 2010 are improving. “Advertising lagged economic recovery for about 18 months after the recession of 1992 and about 12 months after the one in 2001,” he said. “Our global forecast for 2009 has finally stopped tumbling. The 15 countries still reporting positive ad growth in 2009 has become 33 in 2010, and the number could rise as we phase through the year.”

Packaged Goods Sustain Advertising

The report also revealed that packaged goods marketers contributed significantly to sustaining advertising during the recession, while auto and financial have shown the largest pullbacks. This resulted in TV and out-of-home adding global ad investment share, and newspapers continuing to shed almost one share point about annually, GroupM said.

Digital Grows Despite Saturation

Despite broadband saturation and advertising cutbacks in many developed economies, digital media continued to grow, rising from 10% of global ad investment in 2007 to a predicted 15% in 2010.

About the report: The study, “This Year, Next Year” is part of GroupM’s media and marketing forecasting series includes forecast figures for 70 nations, drawn from data supplied by parent company WPP’s worldwide resources in advertising, public relations, market research, and specialist communications.