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The forecast for emerging media spending – nearly 30% in ’08 and 26% in ’09 – by Magna’s director of Industry Analysis Brian Wieser is, understandably, more optimistic than his colleague Robert Coen’s for traditional media, reports paidContent.org.

However, Wieser projected slowing growth for several media in 2009. Among the highlights of his forecast:

  • Search, the dominant new medium, will grow 24.0% to $13.8 billion in 2009, whereas 2008’s growth over 2007 will have been higher: 26.5%.

magna-emerging-media-search-forecast-2006-2009.jpg

  • The fastest-growing emerging medium will be online video, growing 45.0%, to $805 million, but slower than 2008’s projected growth of 54.2% and 2007’s 67.4%.

magna-emerging-media-online-video-forecast-2006-2009.jpg

  • Social media will grow 37.4%, to $1.474 billion, in 2009; it is projected to grow 60.8% this year, though in 2007 it grew 141.7% – albeit from a low base.
  • Gaming will grow 27.4%, to $296 million, in 2009; it is projected to grow 35.6% in 2008, compared with 51.9% in 2007.
  • Mobile will grow 42.6%, to $298 million, in 2009, compared with 74.2% growth in 2008 and 118.2% in 2007.
  • Despite the pending digital TV conversion, “advanced TV” as an emerging medium will grow 13.7%, to $183 million, in 2009, compared with 20.1% growth anticipated in 2008.
  • Emerging out-of-home (OOH) is expected to grow 23.1%, to $1.592 billion, in 2008 – and 22.7%, to 1.954 billion, in 2009.

About the data: Estimates and forecasts (pdf) reflect data for the United States and include media expenditures (or approximate allocations) only, and exclude marketing services and related activities such as production of creative assets.

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