PwC has issued its latest annual Entertainment & Media Outlook report, a comprehensive study that contains projections for online and offline media advertising markets through 2021.
[Editor’s note: If you’re interested in media trends, our latest study of Media Audience Demographics is for you! The report – available for purchase here – breaks down the audience composition of several major media types, by age, income and race/ethnicity.]
The following is a look at some of the highlights for major media markets covered by PwC, ordered by projected size in 2021 and specific to the US.
Online advertising has already overtaken TV advertising in size, a much more bullish estimate than in last year’s report. This year, PwC says that the online advertising market outpaced TV in 2016 by roughly $15 billion, whereas last year it had estimated that TV remained larger than online advertising.
With a strong 9.9% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2016 through 2021, online advertising will be a $116 billion market by end of the forecast period, per the report. That would make it more than 50% larger than the TV advertising market at that point.
As expected, mobile’s share of online ad spend is expected to grow throughout the forecast period. PwC’s forecast on this end has also changed quite dramatically. Whereas last year it was expecting mobile to grow to 40% share of online advertising in 2020, it has revised that estimate to the extent that it now shows mobile exceeding “wired” internet advertising last year. (It’s the same result as shown in its report earlier this year with the IAB.)
Among mobile advertising types, display (including video) is now expected to be slightly smaller than search throughout the forecast period. In fact, search is predicted to inch up from 50.1% of mobile ad spending this year to 52% in 2021.
Mobile video will be the fastest-growing segment, though, with its 2016-2021 CAGR of 31.2% bringing it almost on par with other mobile display advertising formats by 2021.
Overall, mobile advertising is projected to grow by an annual average of 18.7% from 2016 through 2021.
Of the “wired” (non-mobile) internet advertising types, paid search is expected to retain its lead over display. However, both will see a decline in ad spending, with non-mobile advertising actually forecast for a compound annual growth rate of -3.7%.
The only growth in “wired” internet advertising will be for video, which will see a 7.2% CAGR through the 2016-2021 period.
As a result, in 2021, video will take majority share of “wired” display ad spending.
TV advertising spending is projected to grow slowly from $71 billion this year to $75 billion in 2021, at which point it will occupy 38.8% share of the advertising market.
Overall, TV will grow at a compound annual rate of 1.3% from 2016 through 2021, a much lower 5-year forecast than issued last year (3.2%). This is due in part to declining TV viewing, a trend more exacerbated by youth and thus expected to continue if not pick up in the years to come.
The researchers note that: “Despite the range of OTT platforms and the trend for time-shifted viewing across a range of devices, linear TV remains the primary medium to consume video in the US. While this will continue to be the case for the foreseeable future, linear TV’s dominance is in decline.”
Even so, online is predicted to comprise just a small portion of overall TV advertising revenues though the forecast period. Indeed, only $5.7 billion of the $75.2 billion in TV advertising revenues forecast for 2021 (or about 7.6%) are expected to be from online TV.
The 5-year CAGR for online TV advertising is slowing also: at 7.4% this year, its below the forecasts issued last year (8.9%) and the year prior (14.4%).
Meanwhile, within the broadcast advertising segment, cable networks are forecast to see a higher advertising CAGR (2.9%) than broadcast networks (1.0%), with the former extending its lead in ad dollars over the forecast period.
The magazine advertising market is composed of two main segments: consumer magazines; and trade magazines.
The consumer magazine advertising market in the US has estimated value of $16.6 billion this year, and will remain essentially flat through 2021 ($16.7 billion). Growth in digital advertising (2016-2021 CAGR of 13.1%) will be just enough to offset declining print revenues (CAGR of -9.7%).
In fact, digital advertising is projected to overtake print advertising as the leading source of consumer magazine advertising revenues in 2020 ($9 billion and $7.6 billion, respectively).
Meanwhile, the trade magazine market is smaller, but following similar trends. The advertising market for trade magazines is expected to remain mostly flat ($4.4 billion this year and $4.5 billion in 2021), with digital (CAGR of 10%) just making up for print’s losses (CAGR of -7%).
As with consumer magazines, PwC predicts that digital will overtake print in trade magazine ad spend in 2020.
The radio ad market will increase marginally from $18.2 billion this year to $19.1 billion in 2021. Radio advertising is predicted to have a 2016-2021 CAGR of 1.2%, excluding satellite radio advertising, which represents just a fractional share of total radio advertising.
Not surprisingly, terrestrial radio online advertising will be the fastest-growing segment, with a CAGR of 8.6%. However, as with TV (and unlike print and out-of-home), digital ad revenues will represent just a small portion of overall radio revenues. Forecast to comprise 8.2% share of total radio ad revenues this year, online radio is projected to grow to 10.7% share of radio revenues by 2021.
The dominant form will continue to be terrestrial radio broadcast advertising, although terrestrial radio ad revenues are predicted to remain mostly stagnant between this year ($16.4 billion) and 2021 ($16.6 billion).
The hardest hit of the media types examined, newspaper advertising is the only market expected to see a decline in revenues between this year ($16.8 billion) and 2021 ($12.2 billion).
Unlike magazine advertising, digital advertising in the newspaper market is simply not growing quickly enough (2016-2021 CAGR of 2.2%) to offset print advertising losses (CAGR of -12.6%).
Forecast to account for 29.8% of newspaper ad revenues this year, digital is expected to grow to 44.6% share of revenues in 2021.
Meanwhile, each of the three major segments of print advertising (classified, national and retail) is predicted to drop by an annual rate in the double digits, with classified having the worst outlook (of -13.3%).
Of note, unlike magazine publishing (both consumer and trade), advertising generates more revenue for newspapers than circulation, although that isn’t the case on a global basis.
But with newspaper advertising on such a sharp decline, circulation revenues ($11.8 billion) will be almost as large as advertising revenues ($12.2 billion) by 2021. The vast majority of circulation revenues will continue to be print-based, at $10.9 billion versus digital’s $0.9 billion.
Out-of-home (OOH) advertising has the strongest prognosis of the traditional media types, though its healthy outlook is mostly the result of healthy projected growth in digital out-of-home advertising. Overall, OOH ad revenues are predicted to grow from $9.2 billion last year to $11 billion in 2021, with a 2016-2021 CAGR of 3.7%.
During the forecast period, digital is expected to grow at a compound annual rate of 8.1%, bringing it from 39.4% share of total OOH ad revenues this year to 46.5% share in 2021.
Video Game Advertising
This is the first year that we’ve included video game advertising in this overview. Why?
The video game advertising market is about twice as large as the cinema advertising market.
This year, about $1.4 billion will be spent advertising in video games, per PwC, with that growing to $1.9 billion in 2021. That’s still just a small slice of the overall $28.5 billion video game market at the end of the forecast period.
The smallest medium of those identified in this article, cinema advertising is predicted to grow from $881 million this year to $965 million in 2021, with a 2016-2021 CAGR of 2.4%. Cinema advertising revenues will continue to be dwarfed by box office revenues, which are expected to grow at a 1.2% annual clip from 2016 ($10.6 billion) through 2021 ($11.2 billion).
For more on US media advertising and audiences, see the MarketingCharts reports: