Growth in advertising spend this year in the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) is projected to easily outpace the global average of 5.3%, with each country predicted to have double-digit year-over-year growth, according to [pdf] the April 2012 Warc Consensus Ad Forecast. China’s ad market is expected to grow most rapidly, at 14.8%, followed by Russia (13.6%), India (11.4%), and Brazil (10.2%). There is a steep drop-off to the next fastest-growing markets, Canada (4.5%) and the US (4.1%), though the outlook for the US has improved 0.8% since January, the biggest improvement of all the countries. The outlook for the European economies has shown little improvement, with Germany, France, Italy, and Spain expected to be the slowest growing of all.
According to a March 2012 ZenithOptimedia forecast, developing markets will fuel global ad spending growth between 2011 and 2014. In fact, by 2014, China’s ad market is predicted to be 98% of the size of Japan’s, while Brazil’s market will rival the size of the UK’s.
Data from the Warc report indicates that print ad revenues will fall in each country except the BRIC markets and Canada. Overall, newspapers and magazines are predicted to post net declines, of 1.5% and 1.1%, respectively.
By contrast, global online advertising is forecast to jump by roughly 14%, with TV (5.9%), out-of-home (5.3%), and cinema (5.3%) also seeing strong gains. Radio will also see a rise in ad spend, but by a more muted 2.7%.
Meanwhile, according to an April 2012 forecast from PQ Media, global digital out-of-home (DOOH) advertising revenue grew 15.3% to $6.97 billion in 2011, and will accelerate an even more rapid 19.2% this year, driven by record political ad spend and major brands seeking alternative video investments.
The US was the largest DOOH market in 2011 among the 28 tracked by PQ Media, with more than $2 billion in revenues, followed by China and Japan. Within the US, digital place-based networks (DPN) revenue grew 7.5% in 2011, while digital billboard and signage revenues increased 20.3%.
About the Data: Warc’s Consensus Ad Forecast is based on a weighted average of ad spend predictions at current prices from ad agencies, media monitoring companies, analysts, Warc’s own team, and other industry bodies.
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