Carat issued revised forecasts for global advertising expenditures in 2008, lowering them marginally, to 6.0% from 6.2% in September last year. Aegis‘s media-buying unit also published forecasts for 2009 and issued separate data on Canada, Central and Eastern Europe and the Nordics.
In 2009, advertising spending is predicted to grow of 4.9% worldwide, with the fastest-growing regions expected to be Asia Pacific and Latin America, with strong increases predicted for India, Indonesia and Argentina – at 21.2%, 22.3% and 15.0%, respectively.
The strongest growth remains in internet/digital, at 23.3% for 2008, although it is expected to slow somewhat to 18% in 2009. Hot on its heels are cinema and out-of-home, closely followed by TV. Only newspapers are expect to decline overall.
“Thanks to one-off events like the Beijing Olympics and the US Presidential elections, we are predicting strong global growth in ad spend for this year, up to 6.0% from 4.6% in 2007. Overall, our forecasts for 2009 are more conservative than those for 2008, but we do not foresee a severe slowdown in global spend as a result of the last six months’ financial uncertainty,” said Mainardo de Nardis, CEO of Aegis Media.
“Digital’s success story continues. We predict it will approach a 10% share of all global ad spend in 2009. Outdoor and TV are also set to enjoy strong growth in 2008,” he said.
The more developed regions are forecast for the slowest increases in advertising growth, Carat said:
“These forecasts also demonstrate the significant disparities in growth rates for media spend for countries across the globe. Clearly, every region is growing at a very different rate,” de Nardis said.
“While developed economies still spend the lion’s share of dollars, the tale we tell is of emerging countries with a rapidly expanding share of the ad spend pie. A good example is Central and Eastern Europe: one of the fastest growing regions with over 20% growth last year and forecast to grow at similar double-digit rates in ’08 and ’09.”
Carat’s forecasts, by segment:
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