Total global ad spend, forecast at $465.72 billion for 2011, is expected to grow about 12% to about $519.86 billion in 2013.
TV, Outdoor Also Primed for Growth
Zenith Optimedia expects global spending in two other major ad verticals, TV and outdoor, to also grow significantly between 2011 and 2013. TV ad spend is expected to hit $189.41 billion this year and increase about 13.5% to $214.97 billion in 2013.
Meanwhile, outdoor ad spend is predicted to reach $31.72 billion this year and grow 12.5% to $35.69 billion in 2013. Ad spend in radio and cinema is expected to grow at a smaller rate, while ad spend in newspapers and magazines should moderately decline.
Internet Global Ad Share to Rise 18%
The share of global ad spending represented by the internet vertical, expected to reach 15.5% this year, is expected to rise 18% to 18.3% in 2013. Meanwhile, the TV vertical is expected to grow almost 2%, from 40.7% to 41.4%, while the outdoor vertical is expected to grow minimally from 6.8% this year to 6.9% in 2013 and cinema will stay flat at 0.5%.
In terms of negative share growth, a slight decline is forecast for radio, while magazines are expected to lose about 11% of their ad share, dropping from 9.3% to 8.3%. The largest decline is predicted for newspapers, representing an anticipated 20.1% ad share this year but only 17.9% in 2013, also an 11% drop.
Display, Paid Search Ads Will Propel Internet Growth
Display internet advertising spend, expected to reach $25.27 billion this year, should grow an impressive 36% to $34.4 billion in 2013. Similarly, paid search spend is forecast to grow 33%, from $35.1 billion to $46.6 billion. Classified internet ad spend, pegged at $11.81 billion in 2011, is expected to grow a comparatively small 18% to $13.96 billion in two years.
Developing Markets Will Drive Ad Spend Growth
Other July 2011 Zenith Optimedia analysis indicates the sheer size of the US – 3.3 times that of the next-largest market, Japan – means it will contribute the most new ad dollars to the global market over the next three years ($13.8 billion), despite its slow growth. However, the next five largest contributors are all developing markets: China (which contributes almost as much as the US, $13 billion), Russia (US$6.1 billion), Brazil (US$3.5 billion), Indonesia (US$2.8 billion) and India (US$2.6 billion). Overall, Zenith Optimedia predicts developing markets will contribute 62% of new ad dollars over the next three years.