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Jack Myers: Ad Spend to Grow 3% in 2007, 7% in 2008, 3% in 2009

Combined, 18 media categories - comprising both traditional and nontraditional - are projected to increase 3.1% in 2007, according to Jack Myers Media Business Report. That’s down from Myers’s original forecast of 3.7%, issued in December.

Myers also forecasts that overall media advertising will increase 6.9% in 2008 and 3.1% in 2009.

“Reports from other forecasters suggesting the US ad industry may be entering a recessionary period are grossly misleading because they focus exclusively on traditional media such as television, newspapers and radio and fail to pick up on the shift of marketers’ budgets to untracked categories,” said Myers.

Nontraditional media grew nearly 23% in 2006, accounting for $25.2 billion in spend, or 11.3% of total 2006 ad expenditures of almost $223.8 billion, according to Myers.

Nontraditional - cinema, mobile, videogame, branded entertainment, satellite radio and custom publishing advertising - is projected to grow 20.3% in 2007, 18.4% in 2008 and 18.5% in 2009.

However,12 traditional media categories, including yellow pages and online, are projected to grow less than 1% in 2007 but driven by political ad spend will jump 5.2% in 2008 then level off in 2009 with just 0.4% growth, Myers forecast.

Excluding online advertising, however, would result in a revenue decrease of 0.6% in 2007 for traditional media, and a 2.6% decrease in 2009.

Other data from the Jack Myers forecast:

• Internet advertising, including search and video, is projected to increase 20% to $16.7 billion in 2007, 24% in 2008 and 28.5% in 2009.
• Broadcast network TV will increase 2.0% in 2007 and 3.2% in 2008, but will adjust downward in 2009, losing 4.0%.
• Local and national spot TV, the greatest beneficiary of political spending, is forecast to gain 13.5% in 2008 after declines of 6.0% in 2007.
• Terrestrial radio is expected to decline 2.0% in 2007 and rebound with 2.5% growth in 2008 before declining 4.0% in 2009.
• The largest declines in ad spending will be suffered by newspapers, which will lose 4.6% in ad revenues in 2007, 2.4% in 2008 and 4.5% in 2009.
• Total direct marketing, promotion and advertising budgets are forecast to grow 3.6% in 2007. Total marketing communications investment growth will slump in 2009, however, to only 0.3%, with media advertising gaining 3.1%.
• Myers projects robust annual growth of 15% in 2007 and 2008 for event marketing.