Worldwide LCD TV revenues are expected to fall year-on-year for the first time since LCD TV was launched in 2000, according to a dramatically revised TV market forecast for 2009 by DisplaySearch, Retailer Daily reports.
The revisions are because the ongoing economic turmoil is unlikely to improve in 2009, DisplaySearch, an NPD Group company, said as it issue its Q4 ’08 Quarterly Global TV Shipment and Forecast Report.
The key factors are reductions in forecast TV prices and revised forecasts for YoY shipment growth for LCD and PDP (plasma) TVs in 2009, down by 7 and 6 points from previous forecasts, respectively.
LCD TV revenues are forecast to fall 16% YoY, to $64 billion in 2009, and total TV revenues are forecast to fall 18% YoY, to $88 billion.
DisplaySearch expects that 2009 will be the most difficult year yet for the TV industry and supply chain.
Several key findings from the DisplaySearch Q4 ’08 Quarterly Global TV Shipment and Forecast Report have been revised:
LCD TVs
The LCD TV market is expected to reach 102.2 million units in 2008, which would be 29% YoY growth–a reduction of 3.6 million from the Q3 ’08 forecast for 2008.
In 2009, the LCD TV market is forecast to reach 119.9 million units, for 17% YoY growth–and a reduction of 11.5 million units from the Q3 ’08 forecast for 2009. Unit growth in developed regions such as Japan, North America, and Western Europe will be just 2% YoY, largely due to the impact of the economic crisis.
DisplaySearch forecasts that LCD TV growth in emerging regions will be 45% YoY in 2009, lower than the 68% YoY growth in 2008. As CRT TV penetration in these emerging regions is 60-70%, the shift to FPD TV continues to be driven by price reductions.
Plasma TVs
PDP TV is expected to grow 24% YoY to 13.9 million in 2008, largely unchanged from the Q3 ’08 forecast for 2008.
This segment is expected to grow 5% YoY in 2009, to 14.6 million units, reduced 5% from the Q3’08 forecast for 2009. That revision is due primarily to the rapid decline in prices of 32″ LCD TVs; another factor is the smaller number of PDP players in the market as a result of aggressive pricing from the top PDP TV brands.
Total TV Forecast
DisplaySearch’s total global TV forecast is 206.4 million units in 2008, up 3% YoY; 2009 shipments are forecast to be 205.3 million units, down 1% YoY–the first time in recent memory that there has been a drop in unit shipments.
In addition to a reduction of units, the revenue decline in 2009 will affect the TV supply chain in 2009–without revenue growth, top brands may aim to increase their market share to maintain revenue, causing challenges for lower-tier players, DisplaySearch said.
TV brands, as well as panel manufacturers and material suppliers, will need to aggressively increase 1080p penetration (even for 32″/37″ sizes), and accelerate penetration of 120 Hz and differentiated products such as Ultra Slim FPD TVs in order to maintain ASPs, according to DisplaySearch.
About the data: The DisplaySearch Q4 ’08 Quarterly Global TV Shipment and Forecast Report includes panel and TV shipments by region and by size for nearly 60 brands, and also includes rolling 16-quarter forecasts, TV cost/price forecasts and design wins.
In related news about LCD technology, a research brief from ABI Research, “Emerging Displays in Mobile Handsets” finds that, though LCD technology still rules the world of mobile handset displays, a number of other technologies are now vying for specific niches in the market. These contenders include organic light-emitting diodes (OLEDs), micro-electro-mechanical systems (MEMS), and E-Ink, which is featured in Amazon’s kindle. Each of these has its own set of strengths and weaknesses, but all cost more than LCD displays, which will make it difficult for them to make inroads in the mobile market in the short term, ABI said.
