A report this month from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) predicts that department stores, newspaper publishing and the postal service are among the top 10 industries in the US headed for extinction, while management, scientific and technical consulting, employment services, full-service restaurants and a range of healthcare-related service industries will experience the most wage and salary employment growth by 2018.
According to the BLS, total employment is projected to increase by 15.3 million, or 10.1%, during the 2008-18 period. The projections show an aging and more racially and ethnically diverse labor force, and employment growth in service-providing industries. More than half of
the new jobs will be in professional and related occupations and service occupations. In addition, occupations where a post-secondary degree or award is usually required are expected to account for one-third of total job openings during the projection period.
The projected growth for the 2008-18 period is larger than the increase of 10.4 million over the 1998-2008 period, or 7.4%, BLS reported. The relatively slow growth rate for the earlier 10-year period was affected by the recession which began in December 2007, and the projected growth rate is higher than would otherwise be expected because the 2008 starting point is a recession year, BLS said.
Growth Sectors and Industries
Projected employment growth is concentrated in the service-providing sector, continuing a long-term shift from the goods-producing sector of the economy, the BLS reported. From 2008 to 2018, service-providing industries are projected to add 14.6 million jobs, or 96% of the increase in total employment. The two industry sectors expected to have the largest employment growth are professional and business
services (4.2 million) and health care and social assistance (4.0 million), according to the BLS.
Goods-producing employment, as a whole, is expected to show virtually no growth. While employment in the construction industry is projected to increase by 1.3 million, declines in manufacturing (-1.2 million) and mining (-104,000) will nearly offset this growth. By 2018, the goods-producing sector is expected to account for 12.9% of total jobs, down from 17.3% in 1998 and 14.2% in 2008.
Three of the 10 industries projected to have the most employment growth are in professional and business services: management, scientific, and technical consulting; computer systems design; and employment services. Taken together, these three industries are expected to add 2.1 million jobs.
Four of the top 10 projected gainers are in health care and social assistance industries. Employment in offices of physicians, home health care, services for the elderly and persons with disabilities, and nursing care facilities is expected to grow by 2.0 million.
The top 10 growth industries:
Industries in Decline
Of the 10 tracked industries with the largest projected employment declines, four are in the manufacturing sector and two each are within retail trade and information, BLS said. The largest decline among the industries tracked is expected to be in department stores, with a loss of 159,000 jobs, followed by manufacturers of semiconductors (-146,000) and motor vehicle parts (-101,000).
The cut-and-sew apparel manufacturing industry is expected to experience the highest overall percentage decline (57%), while newspaper publishing will decline 25%.
The top 10 industries expected to experience the steepest employment declines:
Additional findings from the report:
About the projections: The BLS report focuses on four areas for which BLS develops projections: labor force, industry employment, occupational employment, and education and training.
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