Digital Ad Spend Forecast to Double Linear TV This Year

March 11, 2022

Digital is expected to account for 55.5% of total global ad spend this year. This is per a report [download page] from dentsu, which also forecasts that the share of global ad spend attributed to digital will be more than twice that of linear TV (26.9%) in 2022.

Total global ad spend is expected to grow by 9.2% year-over-year (y-o-y) to reach $745 billion this year. Some $408.4 billion of that spending will go towards digital advertising. This spending reflects growth of 14.8% over 2021.

The growth in digital ad spend is forecast to continue through 2024 when spending on digital advertising is expected to reach $483.1 billion and account for 59.4% of total global ad spend.

In the meantime, linear TV’s share of total ad spend is expected to decline over the next few years. Spending on this channel is estimated to grow by a modest 3.8% y-o-y in 2022, accounting for 26.9% of total spend. This is a considerable change from 2019, when linear TV accounted for about one-third (32.7%) of global ad spend. And, with only modest growth expected over the coming years, linear TV’s share of total ad spend is forecast to shrink to about 1 in 4 dollars (24.9%) by 2024.

In fact, other than out-of-home, which is expected to see its share of global ad spend lift ever so slightly this year — up to 5.5% in 2022 compared to 5.4% in 2021 — other legacy media such as radio (5.2% in 2021 down to 4.9% in 2022), newspapers (4.7% down to 4.1%) and magazines (3.1% down to 2.6%) will each cede share of total ad spend to digital.

Per the report, the US ad market exceeded pre-pandemic spending in 2021, up 12% over 2019. With additional 14% y-o-y growth expected in 2022, US ad spending will account for $290.8 billion of total global spend. Growth in the US ad market is forecast to level off somewhat, with estimated growth of 3.2% in 2023 and 7% in 2024.

For its part, fueled by estimated growth of 25.4% y-o-y in 2022, digital is expected to account for 54% of total ad spend in the US. On the traditional advertising side, it’s worth noting that after more than a year of volatility, dentsu foresees out-of-home ad spend in the US to grow by 32% this year to reach $2.9 billion.

Ad Spend by Industry

Ad spend across all the global industries analyzed saw growth in 2021, with Travel & Transport seeing the highest y-o-y growth (27.8%). Although most will not see quite as much growth in 2022, some standouts include Retail (up 13.9% y-o-y), Beverages (12.5% y-o-y) and Cosmetics & Personal Care (11%).

The full report can be found here.

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