US advertisers will spend $86.4 billion on linear and connected TV (CTV) this year, accounting for about one-quarter of all US ad dollars, according to a forecast from Insider Intelligence’s eMarketer. However, that combined figure represents a slight drop from last year’s $87.33 billion, as linear TV ad spend takes a hit.
Indeed, linear TV ad spend is expected to drop from $66.64 billion last year to $61.31 billion this year, an 8% decrease. That’s in line with a previous forecast from Winterberry Group, which calls for a 7.5% drop in linear TV ad spending this year.
Linear TV ad spend is expected to then inch up next year to $61.74 billion. With CTV ad spending forecast to grow by more than $4 billion in 2024, the total amount spent on TV will exceed $90 billion for the first time next year.
Looking further ahead, the forecast calls for linear TV ad spending to decline to $56.83 billion by 2027, the end of the forecast period, which would mark an almost 15% decline from 2022. In fact, by that time, retail media will probably have surpassed linear TV in total ad spend, according to a separate projection. For what it’s worth, the forecast indicates that CTV will grow more rapidly than retail media this year, at 21.2% and 19.7%, respectively.
Indeed, CTV ad spend is expected to continue to shoot up during the forecast period, more than making up for linear TV’s losses. In 2027, CTV ad spending is projected to reach $40.90 billion, virtually doubling its total from 2022 ($20.69 billion). That would bring the combined total spent on TV ads (linear and CTV) to almost $100 billion ($97.73).
In another sign of how the ad market is shifting from linear to CTV, an analysis of the projections indicates that whereas linear TV accounted for more than 79% share of combined TV ad spend in 2021, that share is forecast to decline to just over 58% in 2027.
For more, check out the forecast here.
