After expanding throughout the Summer months, global marketers’ confidence in their budgets remains solid, per Warc’s latest Global Marketing Index (GMI). This month, the budget component of the index recorded a value of 51.8, relatively unchanged from last month and marking the 10th consecutive month above the threshold value of 50. (A score above 50 indicates a generally improving environment, while a score below 50 indicates a generally declining environment.) Interestingly, the budget index was this time buoyed by expectations in the Asia-Pacific rather than in the Americas.
Specifically, the data reveals that marketing budgets in the Asia-Pacific appears to be on the recovery after 3 consecutive months of declines, with a reading of 51.6. Europe’s budget sentiment stood at 52.3, down slightly from its record reading of 52.8 in September, but the highest level among the different regions, as marketers in the Americas posted a big drop in sentiment – of 4.3 points – to 50.9.
- The global index for staffing levels remained positive at 54.9, though that represented the second-consecutive month of decrease (from 56.5 in September).
- The index for trading conditions registered its highest score in Europe, up 3.8 points to 59.4, almost at the threshold for what Warc considers rapid expansion. Asia-Pacific trading conditions registered a big 6.2-point increase to 58.5, while the Americas posted a similarly large drop of 6 points to 54.4. Globally, the index increased by 2.2 points to a reading of 57.8
- The headline global marketing index (GMI), comprised of the budget, staffing, and trading components, stood at 54.8, relatively unchanged from last month’s 54.7. Europe boasted the highest reading (up 0.2 points to 55.1), followed by Asia-Pacific (up 3 points to 54.7) and the Americas (down 3.4 points to 54.4). Warc attributes the big drop in the Americas to the US government shutdown and debt ceiling worries.
About the Data: Warc’s global panel (1,225 members) consists of experienced executives working for brand owners, media owners, creative and media agencies and other organisations serving the marketing industry. The panel has been carefully selected to reflect trends in the three main global regions: Americas, Asia Pacific and Europe.
Data collection period: 7-18 October 2013. The Global Marketing Index results are calculated by taking the percentage of respondents that report that the activity has risen (“Increasing”) and adding it to one-half of the percentage that report the activity has not changed (“Unchanged”). Using half of the “Unchanged” percentage effectively measures the bias toward a positive (above 50 points) or negative (below 50 points) index. As an example of calculating a diffusion index, if the response is 40% “Increasing,” 40% “Unchanged,” and 20% “Reducing,” the Diffusion Index would be 60 points (40% + [0.50 x 40%]). A value of 50 indicates “no change” from the previous month.
The more distant the index is from the amount that would indicate “no change” (50 points), the greater the rate of change indicated. Therefore, an index value of 58 indicates a faster rate of increase than an index value of 53, and an index value of 40 indicates a faster rate of decrease than an index value of 45. A value of 100 indicates all respondents are reporting increased activity while 0 indicates that all respondents report decreased activity.