Here’s something marketers can’t ignore: the cultural make-up of the US is changing, and quickly. Recent Census Bureau data has highlighted that by 2060, close to 1 in 3 Americans will be Hispanic. For those wanting a closer-term projection, a new study [executive summary download page] from Geoscape forecasts that 19% of the population (excluding Puerto Rico) will be of Hispanic origin by 2018. That’s up from 17.4% this year.
Americans of Asian and Pacific Islander origin are also growing, albeit from a smaller base. Currently at 5.2% share of the population, they ought to grow to 5.7% by 2018, more than double the fractional 2.8% share they accounted for in 1990.
Obviously – no news here – this growth comes at the expense of the non-Hispanic White population, which has already fallen from an estimated 75.8% share in 1990 to 62.3% this year and a forecast 60.1% share in 2018. With those kinds of trends, it’s easy to see how the Census Bureau has forecast the US to be a majority-minority country in 30 years’ time.
The Geoscape study offers a host of intriguing statistics and forecasts. Some of the more interesting ones follow:
- Hispanics will account for 59.4% of population growth between this year and 2018, after accounting for 57% of growth between 2000 and 2013;
- Between 2013 and 2018, there will be an average of 169 new Hispanic Americans every hour;
- Non-Hispanic Whites are already a minority in 362 US counties;
- Hispanic population growth is much faster (exceeding 25% much of the time) than non-Hispanic White population growth in the top 25 DMAs;
- Population growth for the non-Hispanic White population is actually negative in a majority of those top 25 DMAs;
- Non-Hispanic Whites are a minority of the population in the 2 largest states, California (38.4%) and Texas (43.3%), though remain a majority in New York (57.4%);
- Among the top 25 DMAs by population count, 22 house at least 1 million Asians, Blacks, or Hispanics;
- By 2018, Whites will account for 79.9% of the 75+ population, but just 44.5% of the population aged 0-4;
- Hispanics will account for just 8% of the 75+ population that year, but an outsized 29.6% of those aged 0-4;
- About 68% of Hispanics are under the age of 40, in keeping with recent estimates that 40% are under 21;
- 32% of Asian-Americans are aged 25-44, compared to 24% for the non-Asian population;
- 66.9% of Hispanic Americans count Mexico as their country of origin; and
- Chinese and Taiwanese (24%) together account for the largest country of origin segment among Asians.
About the Data: GeoscapeÂ® employs a multi-disciplinary methodology to update certain demographic data published by public service entities such as the Census Bureau and extends this information through various public and proprietary data inputs, modeling and analytics. American Marketscape DataStreamTM (AMDS) also includes cultural segmentation and socioeconomic stratification data as well as a plethora of consumer spending potential data.