Of the major races and ethnicities in the US, Hispanics are by far the youngest on average, with 40% under the age of 21 last year. According to the latest projections from the US Census Bureau, that’s not likely to change, as Hispanics will make up 38% of the under-18 population in 2060. Significantly, the projections also see Hispanics accounting for 31% of the total US population of 420.3 million in 2060, and the US becoming a majority-minority nation in 2043.
That is, while minorities now account for 37% of the US population, by 2060, they will comprise 57% share. (In this case, the term “minorities” is defined as all residents save for the single-race non-Hispanic white population.) No single group will be in the majority.
Aside from Hispanics, who will more than double in size and grow from 17% of the population this year to 31% in 2060, other races will also see strong growth. The Asian population is expected to double, from 15.9 million to 34.4 million, increasing its share of the population from 5.1% to 8.2%. The black population will increase by almost 50%, but will see a smaller growth in share of total population (13.1% to 14.7%).
Larger Share of Population to Be Over 65
The newest Census Bureau projections represent a slowdown in growth from previous forecasts, due to recent trends in fertility and international migration. Due to slower population growth, the older population will become much larger over time.
The 65+ group will go from numbering 1 in 7 residents this year to slightly more than 1 in 5 in 2060, more than doubling in size from 43.1 million to 92 million, with a majority 56% of those being non-Hispanic white. In fact, by 2056, there will be more residents aged over 65 than aged under 18.
Also seeing big growth will be the 85+ group, projected to more than triple in size from 5.9 million to 18.2 million, or 4.3% of the total population. By 2060, though, Baby Boomers will no longer be a force (they currently control 70% of US disposable income), as the youngest will be 96 years of age. At that point, there will be around 2.4 million Baby Boomers, down from 76.4 million this year.
Male-to-Female Ratio to Grow
The ratio of males to females will stay fairly steady for the under-18 group, at 104.7 males per 100 females. For older groups, though, the ratio will increase fairly substantially. In the 18-64 bracket, there will be 104.1 males per 100 females in 2060, up from 98.9 this year. And in the 65+ group, the number of males per 100 females is expected to grow from 77.3 to 84.4.
About the Data: Details of the Census Bureau’s methodology and assumptions can be found here [pdf].