The internet is the fastest-growing advertising medium, and despite not being the largest global ad medium, will contribute easily the most to spending growth, according to a new forecast from ZenithOptimedia. Between 2012 and 2015, online ad spending should increase by $47.6 billion, or about two-thirds of the $71.7 billion in projected growth. Fueling that increase will be mobile advertising, with spending predicted to increase by $24.8 billion in that time period, relatively on par with TV’s contribution ($26 billion) to growth.
That’s a fairly remarkable result, given TV’s dominance in the global advertising market (leading 40% share last year) and mobile’s current fractional role (1.7% share of spending last year). Mobile advertising expenditures are expected to grow by 77% this year, 56% next year, and 48% in 2015, while desktop internet advertising should grow by 10% annually.
By 2015, then, the internet will have grown to account for 24.6% share of global advertising spending from 18.3% last year, while TV will retain its top position (39.5% share, down slightly from 40% last year). The internet’s rise will be primarily at the expense of newspapers (14.7% share, down from 18.7%) and magazines (7%, down from 8.5%). In fact, ZenithOptimedia believes that online advertising dollars will exceed newspaper spend for the first time this year, while overtaking the combination of newspapers and magazines in 2015.
All told, global ad spending growth is projected to lag GDP growth this year (3.5% and 5.6%, respectively), in 2014 (5.1% and 6.7%, respectively) and in 2015 (5.9% and 7%, respectively), although the gap is expected to narrow over time. Total spending on advertising is expected to reach $503 billion in value this year.
- Display is expected to be the fastest-growing internet category, with 20% annual growth. Display’s growth will be driven by online video and social media advertising, growing at 25% and 33% per year, respectively.
- Paid search, for comparison, is projected to grow at an annual rate of 15%.
- By 2015, mobile advertising is expected to account for one-quarter of global online advertising spend and 6% of advertising spending overall.
- Eastern Europe and Central Asia is forecast to be the fastest-growing region this year, with a 10.9% rise in spending. North America is slated for a 3.4% increase.
- The US is expected to contribute 28% of the additional global advertising spending that occurs between 2012 and 2015. China will be the next-largest contributor, at 18% of new spending.
- The US will remain the world’s largest advertising market in 2015, with projected spending of $182.3 billion.