Just a few months ago ZenithOptimedia predicted that mobile would contribute almost as many dollars to new advertising spending as TV in the period spanning 2012-2015. Now, the researchers have updated their forecasts and are projecting mobile advertising to generate more new ad spending ($31.8 billion) than TV ($29.8 billion) for the global ad economy from this year through 2016. That’s fairly remarkable, considering that ad spending on TV is currently about 15 times higher than on mobile. The end result is that mobile will pass radio, magazines and outdoor to become the world’s 4th-largest ad medium.
By 2016, ZenithOptimedia forecasts that mobile internet ad spending will account for 7.7% share of global advertising dollars, almost tripling the estimated 2.7% share from this year. That 7.7% share will exceed the share of ad spend captured by outdoor (6.9%), magazines (6.3%) and radio (6.3%), and will be behind only newspapers (14%), desktop internet (18.9%) and TV (39.3%).
While mobile will likely cannibalize some desktop internet ad spending, the forecast isn’t too dull on the desktop side of things. Desktop internet is projected to be the third-largest contributor to global ad spend growth from now to 2016, with an additional $21.5 billion in spending forecast for the medium, which will increase its share of ad dollars by a point to 18.9%.
The rise of online advertising is coming almost entirely at the expense of print – with magazines (down 1.6% points to 6.3% share) and newspapers (down 3% to 14% share) likely to see not only decreases in ad market share, but also in ad spending volume.
Overall, the researchers predict that global ad spending will increase by 3.6% this year, before growing by 5.3% next year and by 5.8% in both 2015 and 2016.
About the Data: The global forecasts are based on an analysis of 77 markets. Print advertising projections are based only on advertising within printed editions of publications, not on their websites on in tablet editions or mobile applications, all of which are picked up in the internet category.