Almost one-third (31.6%) of US media ad spending will be allocated to digital media this year, with mobile capturing the majority share of that spending, estimates eMarketer in a recent forecast. In fact, for the first time, the share of media ad spending allocated to mobile (16.6%) will exceed the share allocated to print (15.8%).
Mobile and print ad spend are clearly moving in opposite directions, as has been the case for some time now. With mobile gains expected and continued print declines on the horizon, the forecast calls for mobile to more than double all of print ad spend by 2018 (26.9% and 12.8%, respectively). No doubt this will bring ad spend more in line with consumption trends, though the ad spend-media consumption comparison neglects an analysis of the effectiveness of advertising across various media.
Meanwhile, a year before mobile doubles print, another milestone is forecast to occur. In 2017, per eMarketer’s projections, digital media (37%) will overtake TV (36.3%) to become the single largest advertising market in the US. A recent report from PwC was less bullish on this prospect, forecasting that online ad revenues would overtake TV (including online TV) in 2019.
In other results from the eMarketer forecast:
- Magazines are expected to fare better than newspapers over the coming years, dropping 1.3% points in share between this year and 2019 (to 6.5%) versus a 2.3%-point decline for newspapers (to 5.7%);
- Spending on non-mobile devices (primarily desktops) will exceed print spending in 2019 (12.5% share and 12.1% share, respectively);
- Radio’s share of total media ad spending is expected to gradually decrease from 8.2% this year to 6.8% in 2019; and
- The share of spending allocated to outdoor media is forecast to slightly decline (from 3.9% to 3.4%) during that period. This is likely due to other media growing more quickly rather than a decline in actual spending on outdoor, which has seen 21 consecutive quarters of year-over-year growth.
About the Data: Spending share estimates for newspapers, magazines and directories are for print only. Radio’s estimates exclude off-air radio and digital.