Global economic growth is expected to lower from the 2007 level of 4.2% to 3.7% in 2008 and 3.8% in 2009, according to data from the International Monetary Fund‘s World Economic Outlook, reports the World Advertising Research Center.
“Economic growth has nearly stalled,” said IMF chief economist Simon Johnson, citing a 25% probability that growth could slip below 3% this year and next -?the “equivalent to a global recession.”
Regional growth forecasts for 2008 and 2009, from the IMF:
- US – 0.5% (down one percentage point from January) with only a slight increase to 0.6% in 2009.
- Europe – 1.4% in 2008 and 1.2% in 2009.* Among EU-member economies, the IMF predicts that in 2008…
- Spain will achieve the highest level of growth (up 1.8%)
- Italy’s growth rate will slow to just 0.3%.
- France and Germany will improve 1.4% each.
- Japan – 1.4% this year (down from 2.1%), and 1.5% in 2009.**
- Emerging markets are also expected to slow slightly, largely as a result of inflation, with the IMF forecasting the following growth levels:
- China – 9.3% in 2008 (cut 0.7%) and 9.5% in 2009.
- India – 7.9% and 8.0% for this year and next, respectively.
*A degree of divergence is expected among Europe’s fifteen-member economies, implying that the IMF advocates an “easing” of interest rate policy stance by the European Central Bank.
**The Bank of Japan was advised to keep interest rates on hold, or lower them slightly “if there were a substantial deterioration in growth prospects.”