Worldwide online ad revenues will grow to $103 billion in constant currencies by 2015, according to MagnaGlobal.
Online Advertising to Grow 11% during Next Five Years
MagnaGlobal expects worldwide online ad revenues to collectively grow by an average rate of 11% between 2010 and 2015. This means by 2015, online ad revenues will reach $103 billion.
During 2010, MagnaGlobal forecasts online ad revenues will grow 12.4%, reaching $61 billion globally. In 2011, online ad revenues are expected to grow 11.7%, reaching about $68 billion.
Paid Search Drives Growth
Paid Search has become the most important component of online advertising, and in 2010 this segment will account for $29.8 billion, about 49% of total revenues and up 16.5% from 2009 totals on a constant currency basis. Google is the global leader in paid search, although in the fastest-growing paid search markets of China and Russia, the leading paid search providers are domestic players Baidu and Yandex.
Other 2010 Revenues will total $31.2B
All other online advertising will account for $31.2 billion, up by 8.7% in constant currency terms and about 51% of total revenue. MagnaGlobal advises that other online advertising is much more diffused, with a handful of global portals, such as Yahoo and Microsoft, and many regionally strong publishers (often associated with print publications) capturing most of that sector’s revenue.
In addition, social networking sites such as Facebook are capturing a large and growing share of audience time. While advertising is becoming increasingly important for social networks, and is undoubtedly growing much more rapidly than the rest of online advertising, MagnaGlobal says social network advertising often fails to deliver results equivalent to its premium pricing.
Consumers Not Directly Driving Growth
Although an increasing number of consumers are spending more time online globally, MagnaGlobal analysis indicates this is not a direct driver of increasing online ad revenues. Rather, a rising number of small, niche-oriented businesses, competitive intensity between advertisers within similar brand-categories, and the increasing online presence of large brands who otherwise prioritize television advertising are all fueling growth in online ad revenues.
MagnaGlobal also advises that while mobile advertising is currently a modestly-sized segment, an endemic mobile ecosystem will gradually emerge, followed shortly thereafter by growing volumes of mobile advertising revenues.
Web Users Receive 1.1T Display Ads
US web users received 1.08 trillion online display ads in Q1 2010, according to comScore AdMetrix data. This represents 15% growth from 944.4 billion online display ads received by US web users in Q1 2009. Total U.S. display ad spending in Q1 reached an estimated $2.7 billion, with the average cost per thousand impressions (CPM) equal to $2.48.
Social networking site Facebook.com led all online publishers during Q1 2010 with 176 billion display ad impressions, representing 16.2% market share. Yahoo Sites ranked second with 132 billion impressions (12.1% market share), followed by Microsoft Sites with 60 billion impressions (5.5% market share) and Fox Interactive Media with 53 billion impressions (4.9% market share).