The radio industry will see its over-the-air revenues in 2010 climb 4.4% from last year to $13.93 billion according to a revised forecast issued by media consulting firm BIA/Kelsey.
BIA/Kelsey also predicts another $459.3 million in revenues will come from digital and online sources this year.
Top 10 Market Revenues Average 6.26% Growth
BIA/Kelsey estimates indicate the top 10 US radio markets will average 6.26% revenue growth this year. Some markets will experience growth rates higher than this. Notably, San Francisco and Philadelphia can expect overall revenue growth of eight percent due primarily to an increase in spending by national advertisers.
Scattered Markets Will See 7.5%-plus Growth
Scattered cities in a number of markets will hit 7.5% or greater growth this year according to BIA/Kelsey predications. These include Miami-Ft. Lauderdale-Hollywood, Florida (7.5%); Denver, Colorado (8.5%); Syracuse, New York, Little Rock, Arkansas, and Springfield, Massachusetts (8% each); and New Haven, Connecticut (7.7%). Markets ranked 11 to 25 will raise an average of 4.05%, while others will see average revenue increases of between 2.73% and 3.66%
Radio Revenue to Grow 15% by 2014
This year, total broadcast and online revenues for the radio industry are expected to reach $14.4 billion. By 2014, BIA/Kelsey projects this total will rise to $16.6 billion, an increase of about 15%. The highest percentage of growth, 4.4%, will occur between 2013 ($15.9 billion) and 2014. Online revenues are expected to remain a tiny fraction (roughly 5%) of overall annual revenues during the next several years.
It is interesting to note that despite healthy overall growth projections, 2014 revenues will still be 1.2% below the $16.8 billion recorded in 2008.
More impressively by growth rate, national ad revenue increased 16% from the same period a year earlier, to $702 million. Combined US local and national radio ad revenue climbed 6% in Q2 2010, to $3.75 billion.
Meanwhile, network ad revenue remained flat at $274 million, digital ad revenue grew 25% to $157 million and off-air revenue grew 2% to $375 million. In total, US radio ad revenue improved 6% in Q2 2010 compared to Q2 2009, reaching $4.52 billion.
About the Data: BIA/Kelsey examined 291 Arbitron-rated markets with historic and projected market demographic and financial statistics.