Update: US Retail Sales Now Forecast to Grow by 10.5-13.5% This Year

June 15, 2021

This article is included in these additional categories:

Customer-Centric | Industries | Retail & E-Commerce | Spending Trends

NRF US Retail Sales Growth Revised Forecast 2008 2021 June2021There may be good news on the horizon for brick-and-mortar American retailers. Citing greater than expected resilience in the economy and consumer spending, revised figures from the National Retail Federation (NRF) project US retail sales will see more growth than originally anticipated this year.

In its revision, NRF forecasts retail sales to grow between 10.5% and 13.5% this year, with total sales (excluding those from automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants) at somewhere between $4.44 trillion and $4.56 trillion. This is up from NFR’s original forecast in February, which estimated retail sales would reach between $4.3 trillion and $4.4 trillion, representing growth of 6.5-8.2%.

Of note, this new set of figures only applies to bricks and mortar stores. NRF’s original forecast that non-store and online sales would grow between 18% and 23%, totaling around $1.1 trillion, remains unchanged.

Additionally, non-retail businesses may have reason to celebrate, given that the NRF is even more optimistic about the growth in the US economy. Original predictions showed GDP growth of 4.5-5%. It has now been projected to be closer to 7%, stating that “pre-pandemic levels of output are expected to return this quarter.”

About the Data: All NRF figures are based on the US Census Bureau’s revisions and adjustments released on April 26, 2021.


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