Small-to-midsize radio and TV markets in the Pacific region, especially in metro areas with large Hispanic populations, have the greatest potential forrevenue growth, according to SNL Kagan’s “Radio/TV Station Annual Outlook: Market-by-Market Revenue Projections” report.
The annual report takes into account overall broadcast revenue trends, market demographics and expected ad revenues from the presidential election in determining a market’s growth potential.
SNL Kagan forecasts a five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.1% for US radio market revenue, despite a 2.5% drop in total radio revenue in 2007.
San Diego tops its list of fastest-growing markets, largely due to a substantial Hispanic population, the shifting economic focus to high-tech jobs and a five-year retail growth rate of 11.9% (well above the national average of 6.5%).
Overall, radio revenues in the Pacific region are expected to grow rapidly, with 13 of the top 20 markets by revenue located in California.
SNL Kagan projects growth in TV revenues (3.9% over the next five years) despite a 2007 decline of 8.5% generated by the writers’ strike and advertising migration to the internet.
TV ad revenues are expected to rise 8.8% in 2008 from TV ad buys connected with the presidential election. The largest growth will likely be in the Pacific and Mountain regions, with Las Vegas and San Diego at the top of the list.
At the other end of the spectrum, the Great Lakes and Central South regions rank lowest for both radio and TV revenue projections.
Slow retail growth and auto industry layoffs are the main factors for the depressed outlook in the Great Lakes, where revenue is projected to grow 2.7% for TV and 0.9% for radio.
The Central South, particularly the Mississippi markets still recovering from Hurricane Katrina, faces tough times ahead, with projected revenue growth of 2.8% for TV and 0.8% for radio.