The upfront market will be up 20%, to $8.26 billion, compared to the $7.2 billion posted in 2009, according to Barclays Capital. That’s still far less than the $9.23 billion pulled in the 2008 upfront, as reported by MediaBuyerPlanner.
The improved economy, a boost in auto spending, and the robust scatter market will lead to the strong(er) upfront this year, Barclays says.
Auto, Consumer Products Spending Up
In the first two months of this year, automakers increased their spending on national TV by nearly 22% compared to 2009, to $742.7 million, per Kantar Media. Consumer products spending, another big category at the upfronts, is also up. On the other hand, drug ad spending – another big chunk of the upfront’s intake – is still down, with spending on national TV down 5%, to $426.1 million, from a year ago.
Scatter Soars, Too
Scatter pricing has been as much as 30% higher than what media buyers paid in 2009, according to MediaBuyerPlanner.
While the networks are saying they will be asking double-digit CPM percentage increases, Barclays believes high single-digit increases will likely be the case.
In terms of volume, Barclays predicts CBS will pull a 27.5% increase, to $2.43 billion, Fox will jump 22% to $1.96 billion, ABC will rise 16.2% to $2.21 billion, and NBC will be up 12.8%, to $1.65 billion, MediaPost reports.