In 2011, TV will retain its global leadership of all media forms in terms of total revenues, including ad revenues, subscriptions, pay-per-view and license fees, according to a new white paper from Deloitte. “Technology, Media & Telecommunications Predictions 2011” forecasts this year, TV will account for about 41% of all ad revenues, and grow its share to 42% by 2012. TV ad revenue share grew close to 10% between 2007 and 2010, from 37% to more than 40%.
TV, Newspapers Grow in Opposite Directions
TV’s expected 10% five-year growth in ad revenue, from $174 billion in 2007 to $191 billion in 2011, contrasts sharply with newspapers’ expected 26% decline in the same time period, from $126 billion to $93 billion.
A forecast 6% increase in TV ad revenue during 2012 would take it beyond $200 billion, more than twice that of newspapers, which still represent the number two global advertising medium.
TV Audience Attention Climbs
Deloitte also expects TV will grow its share of audience attention. In 2011, aggregate TV viewing is expected to total 4.49 trillion hours. The global TV audience is expected to increase about 1%, from 3.66 billion to 3.7 billion viewers, still leaving about half the world population as a potential growth market.
Average daily TV viewing time per person in 2011 is expected to reach three hours and 12 minutes.
DVR Owners Check Broadcast TV First
Although DVR penetration is expected to surpass 50% in the US and UK TV markets this year, Deloitte predicts this will have no impact on TV advertising viewing or revenues. Looking at the behavior of 958 DVR owners in the UK, Deloitte data indicates 70% always check to see what is on broadcast TV first before playing their DVR. Only 16% always check their DVR first.
In addition, Deloitte analysis suggests that viewers will retain from advertisements even when they are fast-forwarded at 12 times their normal speed.
Nielsen: DVRs Help, Not Hinder, Commercial Viewing
Data from a recent Nielsen Company study indicates DVRs actually contribute significantly to commercial viewing. In May 2010, the average rating for a primetime commercial minute among persons age 18-49 in DVR households rose from 1.54 in live viewing to 2.21 three days later -a 44% lift. This degree of lift to the viewing of commercials has remained steady for several years. On a total US basis, DVR playback added a 16% lift to the average minute of primetime commercials.