Nearly 120 million mobile users in more than 40 countries are expected to receive broadcast TV services by 2012, compared with less than 12 million in 2007, with DVB-H the dominant transmission standard, according to a new report from Juniper Research.
However, the report cautions that services face significant technological and regulatory hurdles, both prior to launch and as they bid to build a critical mass of subscribers.
Worldwide annual consumer spending on mobile broadcast TV services is expected to exceed $6.6 billion by 2012; combined end-user revenues from streamed and broadcast mobile TV services will rise from just under $1.4 billion in 2007 to nearly $12 billion in 2012, according to Juniper’s forecast.
Due to slower-than-anticipated deployment of mobile broadcast TV services in some key markets, broadcast TV revenues will surpass streamed-services only in 2012, according to the report.
Other findings from the report:
- The US will be the largest single market for mobile broadcast TV services in 2012, followed by Japan and Italy.
- Streamed TV packages will gradually evolve to complement mobile broadcast TV, functioning as an outlet for the “long tail” of minority viewing TV channels.
- Advertising will contribute an increasing proportion to overall mobile TV revenues, but in most cases will provide a supplementary revenue stream; most services relying on both subscriptions and pay-per-view for the majority of revenues.
“While the quasi-mandation of DVB-H by the European Commission is a huge boost to that standard, it does create uncertainty in the minds of those who might regard other technologies as more cost-effective and might ultimately be counterproductive as a measure to promote mobile TV,” said the report’s author, Dr. Windsor Holden.
The report also stresses the need for regulators to make optimal UHF spectrum available as soon as is practicably possible, and for vendors to ensure that broadcast TV chipsets are rapidly introduced into a wide range of mass market handsets to facilitate adoption.
Mobile Dating/Chatroom Revenues
Juniper earlier released data on mobile dating and chatroom services, saying it expects revenues to reach $1 billion in 2010 – and to near $1.2 billion in 2012.
Globally, the number of users of such services is expected to rise from just over 40 million in 2007 to 260 million in 2012, driven by strong demand in both developed and emerging markets, including more than 60 million users in the Indian subcontinent.
According to report author Dr. Windsor Holden, “Major brands such as Match.com and Webdate have recognized that customers are willing to pay a mobility premium for 24/7 access to these services and are increasing deploying mobile applications to complement and enhance their existing offerings.”
Other findings from the report:
- At present, the largest mobile dating markets by user numbers are Japan and India.
- The low level of fixed penetration in India, and the increasing tendency in the country to use mobile services directly as an aide not merely for dating, but for marriage, suggests that overall penetration here will be significantly higher than elsewhere in the world.
- Many customers will use mobile dating as an adjunct to, rather than instead of, their fixed internet dating services.