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Global advertising spending in measured media is expected to show 6.8% year-over-year gain, reaching $479 billion in 2008, compared with 2007’s 6.0% YOY increase, according to GroupM‘s “This Year, Next Year” study.

That forecast growth rate is essentially unchanged from GroupM’s previous estimates, though at the time global spending was forecast to reach $462 billion.

Television and the internet will drive global ad growth, representing the vast majority of additional new investment in 2008, according to GroupM Futures Director Adam Smith, who oversees “This Year, Next Year” reports.

groupm-global-this-year-next-year-ad-forecast-by-region-dec-08.jpg

Portions of the study pertaining to the US ad market were released in late ’07, predicting that US ad spend would increase 3.7%, to $168.8 billion, in 2008; some global ad market forecast information was also released at the time, but GroupM this month issued additional information (see below).

The report is part of GroupM’s media and marketing forecasting series, drawn from data supplied by holding company WWP’s worldwide resources in advertising, public relations, market research, and specialist communications.

“Encircling economic gloom has not affected GroupM’s view of marketing investment in 2008, which is supported by events including the American election, the Beijing Olympics, and the European soccer championship,” said GroupM Futures Director Adam Smith, who oversees all “This Year, Next Year” reports.

“Expectations of media growth in North America, Western Europe and Japan, which combined represent nearly three-quarters of the global media economy, are in any case conservative.”

Additional information released by GroupM:

  • Television will account for 50% of 2008’s new ad dollars; the medium dominates advertising in emerging markets and is the leading beneficiary of ad spend in the US elections and Olympics
  • The internet will account for 28% of new investment, leading advertising growth in the developed world, particularly Western Europe; however, the medium is much less important in emerging markets, which rely on TV advertising.
  • Western Europe is the second-largest media bloc (after the US/North America), accounting for some 27% of total media investment.
  • Western Europe’s contribution to 2008 ad growth is pegged at 16%, well below expected economic growth.
  • Spending in China is expected to grow 25%, down from 2007’s 29% growth.
  • China is expected to contribute 21% of new media dollars – the biggest contributor – ahead of the US, which is expected to contribute 20% of new media dollars, followed by Russia and Brazil with 6% each.

Additional info issued by GroupM includes forecast ad revenues for main marketing services – direct marketing, market research, public relations and sponsorship:

groupm-global-this-year-next-year-marketing-services-forecast-dec-08.jpg

Marketing services are growing as fast as internet-assisted media and are almost as large; sponsorship is the fastest-growing outlet, behind the internet, according to “This Year, Next Year.”

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