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DigitalTVResearch-IPTV-Forecast-Sept2013The US pay-TV market is shrinking, but IPTV is a rare bright spot, according to recent reports. On a global scale, IPTV is forecast to continue its rapid penetration, set to reach 10.6% of TV homes by 2018, compared to 6% this year and 4.8% last year. Those estimates are courtesy of Digital TV Research [pdf], which believes that the number of homes paying for IPTV will more than double from 69.4 million last year to 167.2 million by the end of 2018.

IPTV revenues from subscriptions and on-demand will also see strong growth, projected to increase from $12 billion last year to $21.3 billion in 2018. Of the 97 countries covered in the study, the US is expected to account for a leading 30% of those revenues, although that would be down from 40% share in 2008.

China will be the second-largest IPTV market in terms of revenues in 2018, as the number of IPTV subscribers is forecast to see rapid growth. Last year, China was the top country in terms of paying subscribers, with about 23 million. By 2018, that figure is expected to soar to 76 million.

The US will remain the second-largest market by subscriber volume, with that number increasing from 9.9 million last year to 13.9 million in 2018. (For the purposes of comparison, PricewaterhouseCoopers recently forecast the number of IPTV households in the US to increase from 10.1 million last year to 14.3 million in 2017. Meanwhile, ABI Research just forecast global telco service revenue market share to hit 14% globally this year.)

Other Findings:

  • 73% of the IPTV subscribers to be added between 2012 and 2018 (71 of the 98 million) will be from the Asia-Pacific region, according to Digital TV Research.
  • Of the $9.3 billion in additional IPTV revenues forecast for the period between 2012 and 2018, the US will contribute $1.9 billion and China $1.7 billion.

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