Worldwide spending on internet advertising will total $65.2 billion in 2008, or nearly 10% of all ad spend across all media, and grow 15-20% a year to reach $106.6 billion in 2011, or 13.6% of total ad spend, according to IDC’s Digital Marketplace Model and Forecast.
The United States will lead the world in both total advertising spending and online ad spending throughout the forecast period, with expenditures in 2011of more than $265 billion and $45 billion, respectively, IDC projects (via BtoB).
“By the end of the forecast period, spending for internet advertising will trail direct mail – the third-largest form of advertising – by more than $30 billion, while spending on TV and print ads will each be nearly twice as great as for online ads,” said John Gantz, chief research officer at IDC.
Nevertheless, the long-term opportunity for internet advertising is evident in terms of per capita spending, he said: “Total advertising revenues equate to more than $105 per inhabitant of the planet, while internet advertising revenues are less than $50 per active internet user.”
Among the key findings:
- Keyword (search) ads will remain the dominant type of internet advertising throughout the forecast period, capturing more than one-third of annual online ad spending worldwide.
- Display ads will be the next largest type of internet advertising, capturing more than 20% of worldwide spending annually through 2011, followed by classified ads with nearly 19% of all online ad spending per year.
- Spending in both categories will be pressured by rich media ads, which are expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of more than 50% during the 2007-2011 forecast period.
“Marketers already recognize that online advertising must be incorporated into any comprehensive ad strategy. This will continue to drive growth in online ad spending well beyond the forecast period,” said Karsten Weide, program director, Digital Media and Entertainment.
“However, there is still a lot of experimentation underway within the category as marketers seek the optimal mix of ad types to reach their target audience. This will fuel spending for all types of online ads.”
Additional highlights from IDC’s Digital Marketplace Model and Forecast:
- Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and the Middle East and Africa (MEA) will experience the fastest growth in Internet ad spending during the forecast period with a CAGR of 42.1% for CEE and 29.8% for MEA. Online advertising in Asia/Pacific (excluding Japan) will also experience dramatic growth with a 2007-2011 CAGR of 25.4%.
- Internet advertising will make the greatest gains relative to total ad spending in Western Europe, where online ad spending will capture 18.2% of total ad spending in 2011. This compares with a 16.3% share for online ad spending in Japan and 14.6% in the United States.
- More than $5 billion will be spent worldwide in 2008 in each of the top four categories of online ads – adult content and gambling, information, electronics, and computing. These will continue to be the leading categories in 2011.
About the report: IDC’s Digital Marketplace Model and Forecast provides worldwide and regional data for a wide range of internet categories and activities. Traditional Web 1.0 categories include internet users, devices using the internet, internet buyers, and B2C and B2B eCommerce. Web 2.0 categories look more closely at what internet users are doing online, with breakouts by activity and gender. The database also includes a detailed look at online advertising spending worldwide. Forecast data for the 2008-2012 period is supplemented by historical data from 2006 and 2007. The Web 1.0 categories include detailed information on more than 40 individual countries.