Robert J. Coen, SVP and forecasting director at Universal McCann, again lowered his growth forecast for US advertising spending in 2007 – but said the growth rate would be stronger in 2008, reports the New York Times. He also reduced his final ad spending estimate for 2006 -Â from $285.1 billion to $281.6 billion.
In June 2006, Coen predicted that 2007 ad spending would total $303 billion, then in December reduced his estimate to $298.8 billion in December – and reduced it further yesterday to $290.3 billion – an increase of 3.1% from 2006.
But in his first forecast for 2008, Coen said US ad spending would reach $305 billion, or 5% more than his forecast for 2007.
“The biggest problems are on the local level,” Coen is quoted as saying, citing fewer local retailers as a result of their being overtaken by national chains as well as the migration of classified advertising to the web.
Internet advertising will undergo the most robust growth, according to Coen’s forecast; he expects spending to increase 17% from 2006.
Coen expects growth in overseas ad spending to again surpass the US rate, as it has since 2003. He forecast that ad spending outside the US would reach $339.8 billion in 2007, up 5.2% from his revised estimate of $323 billion for 2006.
Worldwide ad spending will reach $630.1 billion in 2007 – surpassing $600 billion for the first time – Coen predicts; that’s up 4.2% from $604.6 billion in 2006.
For 2008, Coen estimates worldwide ad spending will reach $665 billion – a 5.5% increase from his 2007 forecast.
The text (pdf) of Coen’s forecast is available via the New York Times website.