Total global advertising spend is expected to grow 4.8% to reach $489 billion USD this year, per a ZenithOptimedia updated forecast released in March 2012. This is an upgrade from the 4.7% growth forecast in December, attributed to signs that large companies are investing more in marketing, and a reduced risk of collapse in the eurozone. The company also expects ad expenditure to increase 5.3% in 2013 (up from 5.2%) and 6.1% (up from 5.8%) in 2014.
TV, Internet Poised for Growth
ZenithOptimedia expects global spending in two major ad verticals, TV and internet, to grow significantly between this year and 2014. TV ad spend is expected to hit $193.66 billion this year and increase about 13.5% to $215.3 billion in 2013. Meanwhile, internet ad spend is predicted to reach roughly $88 billion this year before growing an impressive 35.1% to $118.94 billion in 2014.
Ad spend in radio, cinema, and outdoor is expected to grow at a smaller rate, while expenditures for newspapers and magazines should moderately decline.
TV to Maintain Dominance, But Online to Grow Share
The share of global ad spending represented by TV is expected to remain at roughly 40% until 2014, although inching slightly down from 41.1% this year to 39.9% in 2014. The share of expenditures held by the internet vertical, though, predicted to reach 18.2% this year, is forecast to rise 21.4% to 22.1% in 2014.
The cinema vertical is expected to grow minimally from 0.5% share this year to 0.6% in 2014, while radio and outdoor will both see slight declines. Magazines are expected to lose 11.5% of their ad share, dropping from 8.7% to 7.7%. The largest decline is predicted for newspapers, representing an anticipated 18.6% ad share this year but only 16.4% in 2013, close to a 12% drop.
Display, Paid Search to Propel Internet Growth
Display internet advertising spend, expected to reach $32.92 billion this year, should grow an impressive 47% to $48.4 billion in 2014. Similarly, paid search spend is forecast to grow 31%, from $42.46 billion to $55.59 billion. Classified internet ad spend, pegged at $12.69 billion in 2012, is expected to grow a comparatively small 18% to $14.95 billion in two years.
Developing Markets to Fuel Global Growth
Other Zenith Optimedia analysis indicates that a key driver of ad spend growth will be 10 developing markets, led by China, predicted to deliver 49% of the growth between 2011 and 2014. The sheer size of the US – 3.4 times that of the next-largest market, Japan – means it will contribute the most new ad dollars to the global market over the next three years ($19.5 billion), despite its relatively slow growth of 12.65% over the 3-year period. More detailed information on the US ad market can be found here.
The next four largest contributors are all developing markets: China (which contributes almost as much as the US, $17.16 billion), Russia (US$4.14 billion), Brazil (US$3.92 billion), and Indonesia (US$3.82 billion). In fact, by 2014, China’s ad market is predicted to be 98% of the size of Japan’s, while Brazil’s market will rival the size of the UK’s.