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warc-ad-spend-growth-forecast-by-medium-august2012.pngGlobal magazine and newspaper ad spending will decline by 2.1% and 2.5% this year, respectively, per a revised Warc forecast [pdf] issued in August 2012. Both figures have been revised downwards by 1% point from the company’s April projections. Forecasts for all other traditional media were also revised downwards, with TV and out-of-home (OOH) each scaled back 1.3% points to 4.6% and 4% growth, respectively. Radio saw the smallest revision, of 0.3% points, to an expected growth rate of 2.4% year-over-year, while cinema ad spend growth was revised downwards by 0.6% points, to 4.7%.

The Warc global projections are based off 13 markets outlined in the methodology section below.

Internet to Lead Global Growth

The internet was the only medium to buck the trend, with online ad spending projected to grow by 14.8% points this year. This represents a 0.6% point upwards revision from April, and compares with a June 2012 forecast from ZenithOptimedia, which pegged global online ad spending to grow by 16% this year, and an August forecast from eMarketer, which projected a 21.3% rise in online ad spending worldwide this year.

The Warc and ZenithOptimedia figures for internet advertising incorporate display, classified, and search, while the eMarketer projection is based on: banners (static display); classifieds; email (embedded ads only); lead generation (referrals); rich media; search (paid listings, contextual text links and paid inclusion); sponsorships and video (in-stream, in-banner, in-text); and include mobile ad spending within existing formats, mainly search and banners.

BRIC Growth Rates Cut; Still Lead Pack

Meanwhile, Warc also cut the projected total ad spending growth rates for China (-0.1% points), Russia (-1.6% points), Brazil (-0.7% points), and India (-2.7% points). Even so, these countries are still expected to grow the most rapidly this year, with China (14.7%) and Russia (12%) both projected to see double-digit ad spending growth.

Warc reserved its greatest revisions for Italy (-5% points) and Spain (-4.6% points), expecting them to decline by 5% and 7.8% year-over-year, respectively. Overall, the global ad spend forecast was revised downwards by 0.9% points, to 4.4%.

eMarketer’s projection is much more bullish, at 7.4% growth in worldwide total ad spend this year, with China seeing impressive 19.8% growth. (See note below for methodological differences in the forecasts.)

About the Data: The Warc Consensus Ad Forecast is updated 4 times a year and provides estimates for total advertising expenditure and expenditure on seven individual media for 13 markets. The markets covered by the forecast are: Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, Russia, Spain, UK and US. The media covered by Warc’s forecasts are: TV, newspapers, magazines, internet, outdoor, radio and cinema. Totals for individual media include both display and classified advertising.

The eMarketer forecast singles out 17 markets from 5 regions, but also includes aggregate totals for other countries from those regions as well as an aggregate forecast for the Middle East and Africa. The eMarketer forecast includes directories, internet, magazines, mobile, newspapers, outdoor, radio, and TV.

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