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Warc-Ad-Spend-Growth-Forecast-by-Medium-Jan2013Global advertising spending will grow by 4% this year, predicts Warc [pdf], a downgrade of 0.9% points from an earlier forecast issued in August. The revised forecast is particularly harsh on cinema advertising, which had previously been predicted to grow by 6% this year, and is now slated for a 3.8% increase. The outlook has also worsened considerably for out-of-home advertising (downgraded by 1.8% points to 2.9% growth), magazines (-1.7% points to a 2.5% decline), and newspapers (-1.7% points to a 2.7% decline).

While forecasts for all media were scaled back, TV (-1.1% points to 3.2% growth), radio (-0.9% points to 2% growth), and internet (-0.6% points to 13.8% growth) were less affected. The internet is the only medium expected to grow in each of the 13 measured markets, listed in the methodology below.

BRIC Countries to See Fastest Growth

Among the countries examined, Russia (12.3%), China (10.9%), Brazil (9.8%), and India (8.5%) will see the most rapid growth this year, according to the forecast, with Canada (3.7%) next, but well behind that top tier. With an expected growth rate of 2.2%, the US represents the median, right in the middle of the pack. Italy (-1.1%) and Spain (-2.8%) are the only countries projected to see a decline in ad spending this year, while Brazil is the only country to see its forecast revised upwards (by 0.5% points).

The 4% growth forecast overall is similar to a 4.1% forecast issued by ZenithOptimedia last month.

About the Data: The Warc Consensus Ad Forecast is updated 4 times a year and provides estimates for total advertising expenditure and expenditure on seven individual media for 13 markets. The markets covered by the forecast are: Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, Russia, Spain, UK and US. The media covered by Warc’s forecasts are: TV, newspapers, magazines, internet, outdoor, radio and cinema. Totals for internet media include both display and classified advertising.

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