Global advertising spend (based on trends in 12 major markets) will increase by 3% this year and 5.4% next year, predicts Warc [pdf] in a new forecast. However, taking into account forecast inflation provides a duller forecast for global ad spend growth, at just 0.6% this year and 2.4% in 2014. This year’s 3% forecast growth (at current prices) follows from 3.8% estimated growth (also at current prices) last year, with the slowdown mainly due to political and Olympic dollars exiting the market this year along with continuing global economic concerns.
The forecast for 3% growth this year represents a downgrade from a projected 4% increaseÂ made just a few months ago, which in itself was revised downwards from a 4.9% growth forecast in August last year. Of the 12 markets examined, just 2 (Japan; +0.3%) and Brazil (flat) have not seen a downgrade since the most recent forecast.
According to the latest projections, the BRIC countries will record the fastest growth rates this year in current prices: Russia (12.4% in current prices; 5.6% in constant 2005 prices); Brazil (9.5% current; 3.4% constant); China (9% current; 5.3% constant); and India (7.9% current; -0.2% constant).
Among major developed economies, the US ought to see a 2.2% rise in ad spending in current prices (0.3% increase in constant 2005 prices), while the UK is predicted to see a 3.1% gain in current prices and an 0.7% rise in constant 2005 prices.
About the Data: The Warc International Ad Forecast is updated4 times a year and provides estimates for total advertising expenditure and expenditure on 7 individual media for 12 markets. The markets covered by the forecast are: Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, Russia, UK and US.
The media covered by Warc’s forecasts are: TV, newspapers, magazines, internet, outdoor, radio and cinema. Totals for individual media include both display and classified advertising. The figures for internet advertising expenditure incorporate display, classified and search.
Constant 2005 price forecasts take into account predicted inflation. Forecast growth is calculated in local currency.